Simple geometry.
The World on Repeat
The cyclic nature of the world is well-documented. In fashion, music, history, and religion, we can’t help but notice repeating patterns. What was old is new again. And again. And again.
Sometimes, we learn useful lessons and make accurate predictions (though, given how 2020 has gone so far, I’m not sure how well, as a society, we use those predictions). Other times, we see patterns we want to see, because our minds are the best pattern-seeking machines ever known to, well, us.
So indulge me in my pattern-seeking.
To Draw a Circle
Circles are all around us. Planets orbiting their star in circles can be described by simple laws of physics:
Inertia: An object wants to remain in motion at a constant direction and speed.
Gravity: An object is pulled on by another massive object.
As the planet flies forward and continuously gets tugged to the side, voilà, it draws a circle.
Now imagine that you’re making a movie. Movie makers are in the business of betting on what people will pay to watch. So you dig through the data, and you find exactly what people have paid to watch in the past. Let’s call that the expectation. Watch the movie trailers in a given time period, and you’ll get a sense of the expectation du jour.
But a movie that merely meets the expectation is bland. You want to differentiate your movie just a bit. Not so far that it drives away mainstream audiences; Just enough like a sprig of mint on tried-and-true cocktail. You throw in some novelty. And not just any novelty, but the kind that’s in vogue. More plot twists, less questionable stereotypes. Perfect.
The sum of inertia and novelty is the trend, the direction things are going in at the moment. And as the trend continues to shift based on predictable novelty, a pattern emerges.
Of course, this applies to all cyclic systems. Such a system experiences inertia and shift. In this metaphor, the shift acts like the centripetal force.
One More Dimension
Of course, at least in the scope of knowable history, things do not literally repeat without variation. We observe larger changes that transcend the cycles. We may oscillate between being trade partners and being mortal enemies, but the arrow of big history points undoubtedly towards integration. Another force is at work.
This type of force, change, is orthogonal to the cyclic motions of the world. As we continue to move forward with inertia and shift constantly to the side, the force of change is moving us to new places. We keep seeing familiar patterns, but each time a bit different.
The same old wars are fought with shiny new weapons over smelly new resources. The same old timbre is played with strange new noises on improbable new inventions.
Just having some fun with simple geometry.